[<--Jack-->]

Today June 25 2008
 

Though still in the red, buying at the lower levels during the previous two hours of trade led the indices within striking distance of the dotted line. Stocks from the metal and energy sector are trading firm, while stocks from the IT and realty sectors are leading the pack of losers. The BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices are trading marginally down. The decline to advance ratio is poised at 1.4 to 1 on the BSE.

The BSE Sensex is trading at 14,098 (down 9 points) and the NSE Nifty is trading at 4,217 (up 26 points). The rupee is trading at 42.81 to the dollar.

Telecom stocks are currently trading strong. The pack is being led by Spice Communication (up 30%), Idea Cellular (up 4%) and Bharti Airtel (up 3%). As per a leading daily, Tata Communications has entered into an agreement with Eskom and Transnet to acquire their 30% interest in Neotel, the second telecommunications network operator in South Africa. Tata Communications already owns 26% stake in Neotel and after the implementation of the agreement, Tata Communications, along with Tata Africa, would hold an effective 56% stake in Neotel. This majority stake would enable Tata Communications to further expand its reach in Africa.

Engineering stocks are currently trading firm. The engineering pack is being led by Punj Lloyd (up 4%), BHEL and Tata Honeywell (each up by 3%). As per a leading daily, Reliance Infrastructure (earlier Reliance Energy), has bagged a Rs 120 bn contract for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) for the 3,960 MW Sasan ultra mega power project (UMPP) of group company Reliance Power. Reliance Infra will take 42 months to commission the first unit of the 6X660 MW project, the construction of which will commence in July this year. The remaining 3,300 MW will be commissioned at an interval of 3 months. This project will bolster growth of the engineering and construction business of Reliance Infrastructure going forward.

[immi22_80]

Boss it looks market may down further down upto 12,000 levels.
All brokerage house suggest, plz stay away from market .
Plz don't hold any long position this time.
And plz don't panic.
only do intraday

[<--Jack-->]

Saturday, 28th June, 2008 Round-Up
Volatility reigns …
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The markets witnessed volatility throughout this week. Global concerns over rising crude oil prices and inflation continued to weigh heavy on the minds of the investors. In the week gone by the Sensex ended lower in three out of the five trading sessions. For the week ended June 27, 2008, the Sensex lost 5.3%, while the Nifty shed 4.9%.



Confused Fed, costly chemicals and more



A peek at the week
This week markets started on a weak note mirroring the weak trends in the US markets, which closed lower on Friday on account of rising crude prices. Weakness persisted through out the day till the final trading hour causing the indices to close well below the dotted line. Although on Tuesday, markets opened in the green, they pared all their gains by end of the day and the Sensex closed 187 points down.

On Wednesday markets began on a subdued note but buying activity intensified in the subsequent sessions causing the indices to recoup losses and closed well above break even. This optimism spilled over to Thursday’s trading session as well. Although markets pared some gains during the day, buying interest in the later hours led the markets to scale higher and close well above the dotted line. Friday saw the markets open on a very weak note influenced by weak global cues. India’s inflation having risen to 11.42% from 11.05% during the previous week further dampened the sentiments of investors and the markets closed deep in the red. The Sensex closed lower by 600 points on Friday.

Details of institutional activity
On the institutional front, for the week ended June 27, 2008, mutual funds emerged as net buyers to the tune of Rs 10 bn, while the FIIs emerged as net sellers to the tune of Rs 5 bn (as per data available).

 Key stock/sector specific developments during the week
Tata Power announced its FY08 results. The company's standalone topline witnessed an increase of 26% YoY. Its operating margins expanded by 1% mainly due to a reduction in power purchase costs (as percentage of sales). The company recorded margins of 16% during the fiscal. As for profitability, the company's net profits grew by 25% due to a strong performance at the operating level backed by lower interest costs and higher other income. The company recorded net margins of 14.7% (down by 0.1% YoY). It should be kept in mind that, in the previous year, the company had a large negative tax (credit), which is the main reason of this difference in profit numbers compared to the previous year. Tata Power closed down by 16% while its peer NTPC ended lower by 7%.

ONGC announced its FY08 results during the week. The company recorded an increase of 6% YoY in its standalone revenues. The company managed to grow operating profits by 6% YoY and maintained its operating margins at 50.3% for the year. The company was able to maintain its margins mainly as a substantial part of the staff cost was allocated as capital costs instead of treating them as expenses. At the profit level, the company recorded a net profit margin of 27.9% (27.6% n FY07) and witnessed a growth of 6.8% YoY on the back of steady margins and higher other income. This increase includes an extraordinary item of Rs 4.8 bn in the previous year. If we exclude the same, the standalone bottomline would have registered a growth of 10% YoY during FY08. ONGC ended 4% down while Reliance closed up by 4%.



ONGC: Crude price helps, subsidy hurts



Tata Steel announced its FY08 results this week. The company's standalone topline grew by 12% YoY, mainly due to higher realisations and better product mix. Its operating profits grew by 18% YoY on account of a slower 8% growth in expenses. The company improved its margins by 2%. This improvement is mainly due to an all round reduction in costs (as a percentage of sales). However, the company's net profits margins reduced by 0.3% mainly due to a huge jump in interest costs (405% YoY increase). However, the standalone bottomline increased by 11% YoY. On the consolidated front, thanks to the Corus acquisition, the bottomline has witnessed a three-fold jump on the back of a five-fold jump in topline. Tata Steel and its peer SAIL both ended 6 % down this week.

Parting thoughts
Recent market volatility has left investors in a confused state of mind. In such times most of the investors lack a strategy that can aid them during times of high volatility and declining stockmarkets. Rather than get pessimistic during such times, investors should look for investing in stocks with strong fundamentals. Investors should select stocks of companies, which are trading cheap, which they understand, and which have long-term favorable economics. As Benjamin Graham says – “The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator. This mean that he should be able to justify every purchase he makes and each price he pays by impersonal, objective reasoning that satisfies him that he is getting more than his money's worth for his purchase.”

[<--Jack-->]

Monday, 30th June, 2008 Closing
Yes bank augments capital base...
 
 
The benchmark indices slipped to the day's lows in the final hours as the selling pressure intensified across sectors. While selling was being witnessed across most sectors, buying interest was seen in select stocks from the software and metals space. As regards global markets, while the Asian indices closed mixed, the European indices are also witnessing mixed trend currently.

The BSE Sensex closed at 13,462 (down 340 points) while the NSE Nifty closed at 4,041 (down 96 points). The rupee was trading at 43.14 to the dollar.

Having opened on a positive note, profit booking at the higher levels in the ensuing hours caused the indices to shed some gains as the day progressed. The indices continued to remain below the dotted line in the subsequent hours as profit booking in the index heavyweights showed no signs of abating. Investors chose to book profits across sectors leading to all round weakness. The overall market breadth was negative with losers edging gainers by a ratio of 6.1 to 1 on the NSE. While Hindalco (up 2%) and Jaiprakash Associates (up 1%) emerged as the top gainers on the Sensex today, Reliance Infrastructure and ACC (each down 11%) were at the receiving end.

Yes Bank has raised Rs 3.6 bn (US$ 85 m) from Rabobank. The bank earlier had planned to raise Tier I capital through a private placement. However, the bank has raised Rs 210 m in the form of perpetual debt that forms part of Tier I capital and the rest Rs 3.4 bn in the form of Tier II capital (private placement issuance of unsecured, redeemable, non-convertible, subordinated bonds with a tenor of 15 years). Its enhanced capital base, post the private placement and Tier II borrowing, will boost up the scope for growth in the advance book. The bank's capital adequacy ratio (CAR) stood at 13.6% in FY08. The stock (down 7%), along with its peers Axis Bank (down 4%), ICICI Bank (down 3%) and HDFC Bank (down 2%), closed in the red.

India Cements announced its 4QFY08 and full year ended March 2008 results today. In 4QFY08, the company has reported 10% YoY in total revenues, while the net profits have declined by 38% YoY. The scaling cost of operation has exerted pressure on the company's profitability and on the other hand upcoming capacities have arrested growth in realisations. Thus, inability to pass on the hike in costs has impacted margins. For the full year also, the company has reported 10% YoY growth in revenues and 38% YoY growth in net profits. This growth has been largely led by strong demand for cement and better realisations fetched during the 9mFY08. The company has recommended a dividend of Rs 2 per share. While the stock closed lower by 7%, its peer Madras Cement gained 1%
 
1:00 pm
SAIL to sail on its fleet...


The markets lost all gains during the previous two hours of trade and are now languishing in the red. The indices are witnessing selling pressure across the board. Select stocks from the IT and pharma sectors are trading firm, while stocks from the banking and realty sectors are worst hit. The BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices are trading lower by 1.5% each. The decline to advance ratio is at 2.3 to 1 on the BSE.

The BSE Sensex is trading at 13,692 (down 110 points) and the NSE Nifty is trading at 4,100 (down 36 points). The rupee is trading at 42.96 to the dollar.

Steel stocks are currently trading mixed. While the pack of gainers include TISCO and Jindal Steel (both marginally up), stocks like SAIL (down 4%) are out of favour. As per a leading daily, SAIL is planning to run its fleet of vessels in partnership with public sector as well as private players to ship imported coking coal. The company is expected to form a joint venture with SCI (Shipping Corporation of India) to operate and charter large and medium-sized dry bulk carriers. A memorandum of understanding (MoU) is expected to be signed between SCI and SAIL by next week. SAIL imports about 16 m tonnes of coking coal, primarily from Australia. The coking coal contributes about 40-45% to the total cost of steel making. This move is expected to benefit SAIL in cutting its coal import cost.

Auto stocks are currently trading weak. The pack of losers is being led by LML LTD (down 5%) Tata Motors (4%) and M&M (3%). As per a leading daily, M&M's used car business, FirstChoice Wheels plans to invest Rs 2 bn in the next five years for its expansion. The company is planning to have 300 outlets across 92 cities by 2013. The company is currently having 70 outlets spread across 40 cities. The majority of the outlets will be opened through franchisees. This move will help FirstChoice make inroads in the eastern part of the country. On account of M&M's sizeable investments in its subsidiary, the growth will also reflect in M&M's market value going forward.
 

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11:00 am
Textiles seeking relief


Markets opened the day's proceedings on a weak note but have managed to rise above last Friday's closing levels. Currently, the decline to advance ratio is poised at 1.1 to 1 on the BSE. Currently, stocks from the energy and metal sectors are trading firm while stocks from the auto and banking sector are out of favor. The BSE Midcap and the Smallcap indices are both trading marginally higher.

The BSE Sensex is trading at 13,848 (up 46 points) while the NSE Nifty is trading at 4,147 (up 10 points). The rupee is trading at 42.86 to the dollar.

Textile stocks are currently trading firm led by Bombay Dyeing (up 3%), Welspun India (up 2%) and Raymond (up 1%). As per a leading business daily, the textile ministry is contemplating to temporarily ban the exports of cotton along with a reduction in import duty of the same. This decision is mainly to curb the cotton prices, which have risen by nearly 38% over the past year. This rise in cotton prices was mainly due to high demand from the international markets, where in, out of the total exports, 60% is exported to China. As such, due to the rising input costs, the domestic textile companies' margins have been affected. Thus, this proposed ban will be beneficial to the domestic textile companies, as it could help in cutting down their input costs.

In the US markets last Friday, the key indices (the Dow Jones and the NASDAQ) closed in the red. This fall was mainly on account of the weaker dollar along with oil prices touching their record high prices, which touched nearly US$ 143 a barrel, but managed to settle at US$ 140 a barrel at the end of the day. Gold prices rose by US$ 10 an ounce to close at US$ 926.8 an ounce. As for the other global markets, the European markets closed weak on Friday, while the Asian markets are currently trading weak.
 

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Pre-Open
Death of equities?

There is bad news everywhere. Inflation is on a rise on the back of sharp spike in crude oil and food prices. Interest rates rising as well thus adding to pressure on household expenses and corporate profitability. The domestic economy is said to be entering a 'cyclical' slowdown phase. The global economy is 'actually' facing an acute banking and financial crisis.

And the stock prices are going down the drain, literally! The BSE-Sensex is lower by 35% from its all time high achieved just five months back. Now, this is just the benchmark index. There are innumerable other stocks that are down almost 80% and 90% from their highs.



Also read - Hidden Treasure or Tragedy?


Ice age for stocks?
So, have we entered a stage of 'ice age' for the stock markets, where investors go numb and stocks stop rising at all (and continue to fall)? Have we just seen the 'death of equities'?

Think otherwise...
We are of the belief that these times are providing you with investment opportunities of a lifetime. The global offshoring opportunity, India's US$ 500 bn infrastructure spending over the next few years and rising household consumption on discretionary items (like communication, transportation and entertainment) are just a few that you can look out for as evolving wonderful investment themes for the next 5, 10 or even 15 years.

So, what should you do?
The need of the hour for you, as an investor, is to get ahead of the trends, both existing and those that are yet to unfold. You need not let the current environment fool you. Hold on to the quality stocks that you own. In fact, buy more of those, if they've fallen a lot. However do not borrow to buy stocks, at whatever attractive levels they are trading. Do not indulge into trading in derivatives. They are 'financial weapons of mass destruction' as Warren Buffett once famously said...and rightly so!

Have faith in your portfolio of quality stocks and your decision-making capabilities. Be convinced that in the long term, the market is always going up. It always has. Sometimes, it can be difficult to see beyond current circumstances. Your investing success lies in getting over this very difficulty.

As Buffett says, "A great IQ is not needed to do well as an investor, just the ability to detach yourself from the crowd."
 

[immi22_80]

stock for today (07-06-2008) is
Punjlloyd Buy above 227 with a stopl loss of 221 and target would be 235-240
This is for premarket intraday.
Note ::::: Market to remain volatile. Book profit at regular intervals.
Do Happy and safe trading.
Thanks
Imran

[<--Jack-->]

Monday, 7th July, 2008 Closing
New growth initiatives...
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Though the benchmark indices closed in the positive territory, a large part of the gains were pared during the final half-an-hour of trade. While stocks from the FMCG, software and power sectors remained in the limelight till close, those from the pharma, engineering and energy space recorded declines. As for the global markets, while key Asian indices closed mixed, European stocks are trading higher currently.

The BSE Sensex closed at 13,526 (up 72 points) while the NSE Nifty closed at 4,030 (up 14 points). The rupee was trading at 43.25 to the dollar.

Taking off from Friday's firm close, markets opened on a positive note today and the indices did not look back until the mid-session. In the second half of the trading session, selling pressure across sectors at the higher levels caused the indices to shed some profits. From thereon, the indices lost considerable gains and barely managed to close above the dotted line. The overall market breadth was positive with gainers outnumbering losers in the ratio of 2.9 to 1 on the NSE. SBI and M&M (each up 5%) were the key gainers on the BSE Sensex today, while Reliance Communications and Reliance Industries (each down 4%) were at the receiving end.

Trent Ltd, a Tata group company, has planned an investment outlay of Rs 20 bn to set up 20 hypermarkets, Star India Bazaar, over the next five years. The funds will be raised through internal accruals to expand its retail space across formats taking its total store count to 100 from the current 36 stores. The rising rentals have impacted the expansion plans of several retailing companies. However, considering the inflationary situation, value retailing is expected to emerge as a key growth driver. The opening of new stores will aid the revenue growth. On the other hand, raw material and staff costs are expected to exert pressure on margins as the companies expand and open new stores. The performance is expected to improve gradually over a period of time as economies of scale set in. Retail sector stocks closed firm with the major gainers being the stock of Trent Ltd (up 6%) and Pantaloon Retail (India) Ltd (up 3%). On the other hand, Shopper’s Stop closed lower by 2%.

Shree Cement, which had earlier chalked out plans to increase its capacity by 3 MTPA to 9 MTPA by the end of FY09, has now drawn plans to invest Rs 50 m towards rural marketing. While the outlined capacity expansion plans by the industry are expected to drag the realisations lower, the cooling of real estate boom might impact growth in volumes. Thus, in order to convert the additional upcoming cement production into dispatches, the company has increased focus on the relatively untapped rural market to be the next growth driver. The revenues from the rural market have increased at the rate of 7% per annum in the past two years. The company is expecting its revenues from the rural market to grow at the rate of 10% annually in next five years. While the stock closed lower by 1%, its peers India Cements (up 3%) and Prism Cement (up 1%) closed firm.
 
1:00 pm
Biocon hives off R&D...


Though still holding firm, the benchmark indices gave up some of its early gains during the previous two hours of trade. Alternate bouts of buying and selling activity were witnessed during the session. While buying activity is being witnessed across all sectors, banking and realty stocks are particularly in favour. Profit booking is seen in select pharma and energy stocks. The BSE Midcap index is trading up 2% and the BSE Smallcap index is trading higher by 3%. The advance to decline ratio is poised at 3.7 to 1 on the BSE.

The BSE Sensex is trading at 13,626 (up 172 points) and the NSE Nifty is trading at 4,088 (up 72 points). The rupee is trading at 43.13 to the dollar.

Pharma stocks are currently trading mixed. While the pack of gainers is being led by Panacea Biotec (up 15%) and Torrent Pharma (up 2%), the pack of losers is being led by Sun Pharma (down 3%) and Orchid Chemicals (down 1%). As per a leading business daily, Biocon, is planning to hive off its research and development (R&D) activity into a separate entity. This entity would be a 100% subsidiary of Biocon. This is in line with the company's strategy to focus on innovation in the area of biotechnology. This endeavor will help the company develop new formulations and help in attracting fresh and strategic investments in high cost drug development. The stock of Biocon is currently trading 2% higher.

Energy stocks are currently trading firm. While GAIL (up 6%) and GSPL (up 5%) are gaining favour Chennai Petro and Reliance Petro (each down by 2%) are losing ground. As per a leading business daily, RIL is planning to acquire a downstream asset in Africa from the US based company Chevron. RIL is eyeing the asset of Chevron in Africa, which includes 1,500 fuel stations, refining assets, terminals and depots that are spread across the African continent. This move will enable RIL to make inroads into the African market and enable it to establish a global presence. This move is also part of the company's strategy to grow inorganically going forward.
 

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11:00 am
L&T's restructuring plan...


Stocks have opened the day's proceedings on a positive note with buying activity being witnessed across sectors. Currently, the overall market breadth is positive with the advance to decline ratio poised at 3.9 to 1 on the BSE. Stocks from the power and engineering space are trading firm while select energy stocks are out of favor.

The BSE Sensex is trading at 13,755 (up 301 points) while the NSE Nifty is trading at 4,104 (up 87 points). The rupee is trading at 43.1 to the dollar.

Engineering stocks are currently trading firm led by Siemens (up 8%), ABB (up 7%) and Elecon Engineering (up 6%). As per a leading business daily, L&T will restructure its engineering, construction and contracts (ECC) division into four different units within the next two to three years. The four different units will be - building and factories division, infrastructure, power transmission and distribution and metallurgical materials handling and water. These units have started working as four separate units since 1st July this year. As per the management, the company is waiting for the ECC division to touch the US$ 1.5 bn mark (Rs 200 bn - on a standalone basis), before the company separates and registers them as four different units. In FY08, the ECC division contributed to nearly 69% of the company's revenues on a consolidated basis. The stock of L&T is trading higher by 3%.

As per a leading business daily, textile major, Arvind Ltd. has planned to scale up the international brands portfolio of its apparel and retail division, Arvind Brands. The division currently handles 12 brands through tie-ups and is scouting for partners to manage and launch more international brands in India. This move is in line with the company's strategy to focus its resources towards its better performing retail business and to de-risk the revenues from its slow growing denim business. The division is currently in the process of launching six new brands by the end of this calendar year. Further, the company plans to invest nearly Rs 4 bn in expanding its value retail stores, Megamart, across India. It plans to increase its store count to nearly 250 stores. The stock of Arvind Ltd. is trading higher by 4%.
 

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Pre-Open
Emerging markets need a Volcker...

“Policy makers in emerging economies from Russia to Vietnam may have to start acting less like Ben S. Bernanke and more like Paul Volcker if they want to bring inflation under control,” says the International Herald Tribune (IHT).

The newspaper reports that countries having their currencies tied to the US dollar have had to keep their monetary policies linked to the Federal Reserve's. Now, after the Fed has seen its most aggressive easing (interest rate cuts) in two decades, central bankers in these nations (those with currencies pegged to the dollar) find themselves with interest rates too low for their economies. They are in fact facing the worst inflation in several decades. The answer thus lies in the central bankers raising interest rates more aggressively, the way the former chairman of the Federal Reserve Paul Volcker did in the early 1980s.

 


As a matter of fact, faced with inflation that approached 15% in 1980, Volcker pushed interest rates as high as 20% and drove the US into its deepest recession since the 1930’s Great Depression. However, this move ended the US' stagflation crisis (something that is talked about these days as well) of the 1970s by limiting the growth of the money supply, abandoning the previous policy of targeting interest rates. Inflation, which peaked at 13.5% in 1981, was successfully lowered to 3.2% by 1983. Volcker’s moves also brought some sanity to the US dollar that had reached the brink where it looked like a worthlessness currency (some say it looks the same these days as well!).



Also read - Lessons from history



What next?
Central banks in Taiwan, the Philippines, Chile, Mexico, Egypt, Brazil and Russia all raised interest rates last month. However, the fact that they've already waited too long for inflation to surge like wildfire, has increased the risks of these economies moving into a slowdown. Even in case of India, where the RBI has probably waited for too long before taking its actions on the inflation front, talks abound of a slowdown in economic activity over the coming few quarters.

Probably, a second coming of Volcker could lead to world economies (both developing and developed ones) saving themselves from going ‘down the drain’!
 

[immi22_80]

stock for today (07-06-2008) is
Punjlloyd Buy above 227 with a stopl loss of 221 and target would be 235-240
This is for premarket intraday.
Note ::::: Market to remain volatile. Book profit at regular intervals.
Do Happy and safe trading.
Thanks
Imran

Target achieved
Thanks

[<--Jack-->]

Wednesday, July 09, 2008 at 1216 hrs The Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark Sensex opened sharply higher by 575 points in early trade on Wednesday on funds buying in heavy-weight stocks, led by realty and power sectors.

The 30-share index, which had lost 176.34 points on Tuesday, bounced back by 575.52 points to 13,925.17.

Similarly, the National Stock Exchange's index Nifty regained 4,100 level by gaining 133.80 points to 4,122.35.

Marketmen said easing political tension and firming global markets influenced the trading sentiments.

They said the Hong Kong market opened higher by over 558 points following overnight jump' on the US markets.

Major gainers, which supported the Sensex were Reliance Industries, Reliance Infra, Rcom, ONGC, Larsen and Toubro, BHEL, Grasim Industries, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, Infosys Technologies, TCS and Maruti.